Sunday, November 20, 2005

Welcome, Muqata

The Muqata seems to be on the ball when it comes to Israel. Something tells me he isn't the biggest fan of Ariel Sharon. This man gets a link on our blog list!

I'm curious how The Muqata feels about the upcoming elections. How will those who feel betrayed by Sharon vote when it comes down to Sharon or the extreme-leftist Amir Peretz?

Is it a matter of practicality and Orange-camp voters will have to decide who is worse for their cause going forward or is it a matter of principle and those voters will simply cast their ballot for the candidate that runs opposite Sharon?

I'll discuss my views as we get closer to the election.

10 Comments:

At 10:30 AM, Blogger Jameel @ The Muqata said...

Gabbai Shlita -

A few comments on politics today in Eretz Yisrael:

1. Sharon has destroyed the right-wing. The right-wing plus religious majority used to be up to 68 seats. Sharon has decimated the Likud to the point where it is no longer a rightwing party.

2. If Degel and Aguda don't run together, they BOTH run the serious risk of not passing the "Achuz HaChasima" (see jewishworker.blogspot.com's analysis on that today).

3. Even if the Mafdal, Ichud Leumi, Religious Zionist party (Effy Eitam), Aguda, Degel, Shas, and Yisrael Beitaynu all got together in some sort of framework (highly unlikely -- easier for HKBH to split the Yam Suf) -- they would STILL need the Likud to form a coalition government!

4. Under Sharon, the Likud is left. Under Netanyahu, the Likud is wishy-washy (but could possibly join the above religious right wing.

5. If Amir Peretz/Labor wins, he has already stated that he will join with the Israeli Arab parties...and the Likud would probably run to him anwyway. There's no reason Peretz would treat the Religious parties nicely, except on social issues (large family stipends will probably rise). The religious/rightwing have nothing to offer Peretz.

All of the above is very depressing when analyzing the terrible damage Sharon has done to the country, the rightwing, and the Likud.

What's the solution? Although I'm very politcally active, I do not have perfect advice to offer. Except for one thing: Voting for Marzel is a lost vote. We've been in this vote before. Everything else is an option. I won't bash anyone who votes for a religious party, a rightwing party, or the Likud. However, voting for Marzel (and I love the guy) is a wasted vote...which could go somewhere else much more wortwhile.

 
At 10:39 AM, Blogger The Gabbai said...

jameel--

excellent analysis. I agree, things are very depressing. question for you (or anyone else):

is there any chance Sharon can be defeated whether he runs as head of Likud or a new party?

P.S.- how about listing us on your site? :-)

 
At 11:00 AM, Blogger Jameel @ The Muqata said...

Dear Gabbai -

Your question about Sharon is the million dollar question. Since I'm a member of the Likud Central Committee, I should know the answer to that. (Don't bash me for the above admission, its very painful...) The pundits are split on Sharon even staying in the Likud (rotter.net vs. everything else I've heard). The Manhigut Yehudit website has some ideas...but I'm watching carefully to see what happenes.

Link to you guys? Of course! How I found you is a mystery - at least drop me an EMAIL if you're going publically ask me a question on your blog!

 
At 11:07 AM, Blogger The Gabbai said...

Sorry for the public question but we're trying to get some interest going here. Bet you never thought you had "star quality"!

 
At 12:20 PM, Blogger Elchonon said...

Jameel, WRONG! voting for marzel is not a lost vote. marzel + eidleberg and maybe eldad can garner 5-6 seats and you know it. NRP is gone we saw what they did... So its NU which is still junk. Orange camp will vote marzel / eldad... Besides chevron is on the table... who else besides marzel will guard chevron ?

 
At 12:28 PM, Blogger The Gabbai said...

Orange camp will vote marzel / eldad.

You're dreaming.

 
At 2:23 PM, Blogger Jameel @ The Muqata said...

Elchonon: Let's be optimistic for a second, and say that Marzel gets 7 seats, OK? How the heck does that help Hevron, if the Likud is left of center?

If Marzel is not in the coalition, then his influence on the Knesset and government is zero.

The only hope to regain the right wing is not to prop up small right wing parties, but to influence the big parties...where the PM and the majority of the ministers will come from. Otherwise, we have no political value.

Don't be upset with me -- it's not my fault, but its just the reality of politics today in Israel.

I'd be very happy to hear what's wrong with my hypothesis.

 
At 4:19 PM, Blogger The Gabbai said...

there are so many different factions within the religious/nationalistic crowd that they are stepping on each other's toes. we are never going to get anywhere like this. unless all the religious parties put aside their diffeences and unite under one ticket, there is no hope for settlements, Greater Israel or the future of religion in Israel. we are a joke right now.

 
At 4:08 AM, Blogger Jameel @ The Muqata said...

The Gabbai - you are 100% correct, we are a poor joke right now.

Starting with Religious, continuing to Settlements, and ending with Greater Israel.

Unity is the only thing that will get us anywhere. I got email from someone today who thinks that we can muster 61 seats between the right and the religious and likud. Currently, there's not snowballs chance that it will happen. Reminds me of the 92 Rabin elections...and we don't even have a Shamir to rally around.

Maybe this is for the best; to get smacked in the elections, for their to be terrible things happening to us, and maybe it will click in the heads of people that without unity for common goals, we have no future.

Look at Sharon and the Left. They have a very clear common denominator: To get rid of YESHA and make Israel a "nation like all others"...and the demonification of the right, religious, settlers.

I don't see how Marzel getting 6 seats will change anything...Elchonon, are you reading this?

 
At 5:20 PM, Blogger Jameel @ The Muqata said...

Gabbai - Check out my post on historical coincidences...


http://muqata.blogspot.com/2005/11/historical-coincidences.html

 

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